We have been exploring an intriguing book about the biases of our intuition: Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman. In it, we learned that we assume certain things automatically without having thought through them carefully. Kahneman calls those assumptions heuristics (mental shortcuts that ease
the mental load of making a decision) and certain heuristics lead to muddled thinking and errors of judgment. Kahneman won a Nobel Prize for proving over 150 human biases influencing our thinking and behaviors.
January’s blog looked at the first heuristic of PRIMING. Conscious and subconscious exposure to an idea “primes” us to think about an associated idea.
In February’s blog we looked at two more Heuristics:
- COGNITIVE EASE – Things that are easier to compute, more familiar, and easier to read seem more true.
- COHERENT STORIES or ASSOCIATIVE COHERENCE – To make sense of the world, we tell ourselves stories about what’s going on. We make associations between events, circumstances, and regular occurrences. The more these events fit into our stories, the more normal they seem.
This month we look at two more Heuristics:
CONFIRMATION BIAS
Confirmation Bias is defined as the tendency to search for and find confirming evidence for a belief while overlooking counter examples. Jumping to conclusions is efficient if the conclusions are likely to be correct and the costs of an occasional mistake are acceptable, and if the jump saves much time and effort. Jumping to conclusions is risky when the situation is unfamiliar, the stakes are high, and there is no time to
collect more information.
Potential for error?
- We are prone to over-estimate the probability of unlikely events (irrational fears).
- We are prone to accept uncritically every suggestion (credulity).
THE HALO EFFECT
The Halo Effect is described as the tendency to like or dislike everything about a person—including things you have not observed. The warm emotion we feel toward a person, place, or thing predisposes us to like everything about that person, place, or thing. Good first impressions tend to positively color later negative impressions and conversely, negative first impressions can negatively color later positive impressions. The first to speak their opinion in a meeting can “prime” others’ opinions. A list of positive adjectives describing a person influences how we interpret negative adjectives that come later in the list. Likewise, negative adjectives listed early colors later positive adjectives. The problem with all these examples is that our intuitive judgments are impulsive, not clearly thought through, or critically examined.
To remind us to stay objective, to resist jumping to conclusions, and to enlist our evaluative skills, Kahneman coined the abbreviation, “WYSIATI,” what you see is all there is. In other words, do not lean on information
based on impressions or intuitions.
- Stay focused on the hard data before us.
- Combat over confidence by basing our beliefs not on subjective feelings but critical thinking.
- Increase clear thinking by giving doubt and ambiguity its day in court.
Onward and Upward,
Steve
